Gail Model WRONG for African-American Women

The Gail Model as a diagnostic indicator in African-American women: Truth or consequence.

L. Adams-Campbell, K. Makambi, J. Palmer, L. Rosenberg;

Howard University Cancer Center, Washington, DC; Slone Epidemiology Unit, Boston University, Boston, MA

Abstract: Background: The Gail model has been utilized to predict the risk of breast cancer in women of all race/ethnic groups although the model has only been validated in US white women.

The aim of the present study was to assess the utility of the Gail Model as a diagnostic predictor in African-American women.

Methods: Risk profiles were derived via a self reported questionnaire at the time of enrollment into the Black Women's Health Study in 1995.

Bi-annual questionnaires were mailed to the participants to update the risk factor information and to determine the incident cases of breast cancer.

The study of 150 cases and controls revealed that the sensitivity of the Gail Model was 14.7% (11/75) and the specificity was 93.3% (70/75) among the African-American women.

The risk based on the Gail model ranged from 0.3 to 2.7 among the cases and from 0.2 to 2.4 among the controls.

Conclusions: The Gail model underestimates the risk of developing breast cancer among the African-American women.

Therefore, the Gail Model appears to be an inappropriate model to be used in African-American women to predict breast cancer risk.

Abstract No: 1017 ASCO, 2004

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